OAG Coronavirus Update – Week Twenty-Seven Steady As She Goes But Worrying Early Winter Indicators - EMEL

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Monday, July 20, 2020

OAG Coronavirus Update – Week Twenty-Seven Steady As She Goes But Worrying Early Winter Indicators

OAG Coronavirus Update – Week Twenty-Seven Steady As She Goes But Worrying Early Winter Indicators

20 July 2020

A steady 3.5% growth in capacity takes us to just under 56 million seats this week as the slow recovery continues. The major "story" last week appears to have been the retirement of the BA B747 fleet; something that we had predicted months ago and yet somehow still manages to make headlines for an airline that really isn't back flying yet. In January there were twelve scheduled airlines deploying the B747; that is now down to ten with Lufthansa now the largest operator; what price for more airlines dropping the aircraft in the next few months?

The solid recovery in capacity is obviously positive but concerns are continuing to grow around sustainable demand recovery in many markets. Spikes of demand once a market reopens are now as common as a second spike of Covid-19 which unfortunately seems capable of lingering longer than demand. Reports of airline load factors remaining at less than 20% are quite common; Singapore Airlines reporting a 12% load factor in June and the US TSA checkpoint data continues to hover at around 25% of last years levels.

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