Hey, The email marketing world changes forever on Monday, but a lot of people still don't realize what a big deal this is, and how various knock-on effects will change how we sell books and communicate with readers. Today I'm going to break down what you are going to start seeing from next week onwards, and how you can sidestep some of the issues this will most certainly create for your business. First, an apology. September is my favorite time here in Portugal. August tends to be the month when everyone generally does very little other than hit the beach – and I was accidentally getting into the spirit by missing several emails due to what I'll euphemistically call "Life Stuff" before moving swiftly on. I am sorry for that though. Normal service has now resumed! But September is when everyone working in the hospitality industry here can ease off quite a bit and start to let their own hair down. And that's quite a few people in a tourist town like this. On top of that happy buzz, you get the warmest sea of the year plus the tail end of the sardine season and the start of fig season. Please note that I'm exactly middle-aged enough to rhapsodize about fig vinegar given the slightest opportunity (…but still young enough to enjoy the spray gun it comes in). However, this September has been circled on my notional calendar for several months for entirely different reasons. This is the month when the almighty Apple takes its big swinging axe to one of the most beloved tools of marketers: email open tracking. I've been covering different aspects of email marketing all summer as a result, looking at what I call The Subscriber Journey – mapping out the journey a typical subscriber to your mailing list might make. Examining the points where you might lose them. Suggesting things which could delight them. Identifying pain points on your side and theirs. If you want to catch up on any episodes you missed – including detailed coverage of that news for Apple and what it means for authors – get thee to the Email Archive, where the more useful emails are embalmed then interred in the finest digital sarcophagi DaveCoin can buy. What Happens On MondayWithout getting overly technical, let me explain what is happening on Monday and how it affects you. Apple is releasing iOS 15, the latest update for its operating system powering all those phones and tablets and computers people seem to love so much. One of the features being bundled with it is called Mail Privacy Protection, and it has had marketers in a tizzy for the last three months because it's essentially going to kill email open tracking. (And if you think that claim is over-egging it, read on – I will most certainly back that up.) In simplified terms, any email processed by Apple Mail (with Privacy Protection enabled) is going to look like it was opened the moment it was sent, regardless of whether the recipient has even seen the email, let alone actually opened it. This essentially means that we will no longer be able to tell who opened the emails we are sending, when they opened them, or even what country the recipient is in. … if they use Apple Mail and have Privacy Protection enabled. That's an important caveat and one which means the effect on our side of the fence will build slowly, rather than happening all-at-once. But let me say two important things about that before moving on. First, more people are using Apple Mail than you might realize – including many people who check Gmail on their iPhones using the standard app on their home-screen. Just looking at my own list for a second, my stats tell me that around 13% of my subscribers use Apple Mail – and checking with a few friends this seems a pretty typical number (although some report as high as 25%). I'll save you the math, but even if your own number is as low as 10% or even 5%, it won't take long for that cohort to pollute your open rates to the point where they are no longer indicative of reader activity. (Trust me on this, I had an issue with around 5% of my subscribers on MailerLite where opens were not being tracked accurately, and dozens of opens were being reported – sometimes even when the email wasn't opened – and it totally messed with my open rates across every group and segment after a period of time had elapsed. Feel free to math it out yourself… or just wait and see!) Second, some are dismissing this as a nothingburger for another reason: this change is opt-in rather than by default. However, after seeing the messaging that Apple is using for this change, I think we can expect virtually everyone that uses iOS15 to adopt the Mail Privacy Protections. (For comparison, less than 5% of Apple users agreed to continue sharing their data with Facebook earlier this year when Apple prompted its users in a similar manner.) You can see it yourself in the screenshot below. The first time someone opens Apple Mail after installing iOS 15, this is what they will pop up. And remember folks, if someone is using Gmail with the default envelope icon on the homescreen, rather than proactively installing the Gmail app, then they are using Apple Mail and will be affected by this change. A lot of people seem to be missing that. In other words, I think it's safe to assume that almost everyone using iOS15 will "go dark," and that lots of Apple users will start switching over to iOS15 from Monday onwards, and that number will grow and grow as the year continues. It's also important to note, though, that apocalyptic predictions about the end of email marketing at the other end of the spectrum can be safely ignored. This is a pain in the patootie – no doubt about it – but it doesn't change the value of email. Something reflected in the purchase of Mailchimp for $12 billion this week. Yes, that's billion. How This Will Affect YouI used the phrase "go dark" back there, but that's not really accurate. One popular misconception is that we simply won't get data on iOS15 users anymore (and one popular but misguided solution is to simply stop culling your lists so you don't accidentally remove engaged iOS15 users). However, the specific way Apple is implementing this change is having all sorts of unintended effects. As I said above, in very much simplified terms to spare you boring technical details, any mail sent to these iOS15 users will be immediately reported as an open and it will show it as being opened by a generic IP address. (For those who do want all the primo tech gubbins, this article is great.) So, the first thing you will likely start seeing from Monday onwards – and growing as the year continues – is a bump in open rates. A false bump. Obviously that will make it more difficult to do all sorts of things connected with open rates. And that's potentially a lot:
And so on, ad infinitum. Point is, all those things start getting a bit iffy from Monday and will become more and more suspect as adoption of iOS15 grows. What Are The Mailing List Companies Doing?Let me say straight away that there's no easy way to deal with this challenge. For all the optimistic chatter in June about companies coming up with creative solutions and new metrics, I've seen precious little of that actually arrive in time for this change. That's not a criticism, as such, this is a tricky problem to solve for a whole variety of reasons. Longer term, we might see some smart innovation which measures subscriber engagement more accurately. You would presume something like that has to happen because open rates, surely, are going to go away at some point. As attached as we are to them, they will have little value once they start moving away from reality. Indeed, MailerLite says as much in its comprehensive article on the Apple changes, which is worth reading regardless of whether you personally use MailerLite (h/t to Rosalind!). I won't go through the entire article, it's clear enough, but it's worth highlighting the sentiment at the end – namely, these changes will affect reporting not deliverability. Your emails will still get to where they are going, as before; nothing changes on that front. It's just the picture you see on that evil genius dashboard in You HQ gets a little muddier. A Suggested To Do List For YouEverything might become a little clearer when the rubber hits the road on Monday – and indeed I'm sure there are going to be a few side-effects we haven't considered yet. But here's the action I suggest that you consider taking: 1. Review your automations for anything triggered by opens – and make the necessary changes. 2. Do the same for any segments, and any automations involving those segments. 3. Don't pop the prosecco for any open rate increase which suddenly and inexplicably starts kicking in next week. Or do! I'm not the boss of you. 4. If you have been putting off any list-culling… you might want to get on that ASAP. 5. Start thinking how you can use clicks to measure engagement instead – as click tracking will be unaffected by Apple's changes (this excellent ConvertKit article on the Apple changes has some really clever ideas). And that's all he wrote. Dave P.S. Writing music this week is Paul Simon with Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes. |
Friday, September 17, 2021
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This is going to start affecting you on Monday 👉
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